CANNES – Two weeks ago, at the beginning of the 2025 Cannes Film Festival, there was only one guaranteed Best Picture nominee for 2026, Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners.” Following the end of the festival, there’s still just that one lock, but the field is now popping with possibilities. Will the festival repeat its remarkable three-fer earlier this year when “The Substance,” “Emilia Perez,” and eventual winner “Anora,” made the 10? At that point, that seems unlikely. Our gut tells us likely two out of a celebrated crop of Cannes awards winners (and not) will earn recognition for The Academy’s biggest prize. The conversation has to begin with Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just An Accident,” which took the 2025 Palme d’Or, only surprising those who weren’t on the ground or didn’t catch it during the festival.

READ MORE: All of the 2025 Cannes Film Festival Awards winners

“Accident” is one of eight films that NEON went to the South of France with under their banner or acquired during the festival. They had two in competition and picked up another three in their hunt for a sixth straight Palme d’Or winner for U.S. distribution. It worked as they acquired “Accident” just three days before the ceremony. But we’ll get to that in a minute. First, let’s consider Panahi’s masterpiece, which tied for the top grade on Screen International’s annual jury grid (no small feat) and has a stellar 88 on Metacritic at posting. It will find many fans, but there are issues when it comes to Oscar glory.

In theory, “Accident” could be Iran’s International Film submission, but there’s no guarantee that nation’s committee won’t select another Cannes premiere, Saeed Roustayi‘s “Woman and Child,” or a completely different movie instead. The fact that Iran even let Panahi attend the festival was incredible. He’s been jailed for challenging the regime and effectively did so again during his acceptance speech. The movie is also inherently critical of the nation’s corrupt secret police and treatment of political prisoners (in this case, those completely innocent). This is not an Asghar Farhadi film that explores moral quandaries as metaphors for the current state of affairs. “Accident” is often entertaining and brilliant, but it’s also blatant. All that aside, “Accidents” is just the second Iranian film to win the Palme d’Or, however. That may be too much of a spotlight for the nation not to submit it. And for those wondering if another country could, the new rules the Academy dropped this Spring make it much more difficult to do so (“creative control” needs to be in the nation that submits). If that’s the case, NEON will hope to duplicate their success with “Anatomy of a Fall,” which was snubbed by France after winning the Palme but still took home a Best Picture and four other nominations. “Accident” would hope to qualify for Best Picture, Director, and an Original Screenplay nomination, with the latter being its best shot. Of course, this assumes Iran will even let Panahi travel to the U.S. or U.K. to campaign for the film. Zoom interviews and Q&As have value, but contenders also need to be on the ground. If he can’t? That’s a tough campaign for any experienced distributor, let alone NEON with so much on its plate.

The mini-major’s best shot at a Best Picture nomination out of the festival is Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value,” which came in “second,” taking the Grand Prix. Renate Reinsve is a major contender for a Best Actress nomination (you’d hope she’s a lock but we thought that after she won the Best Actress prize at Cannes for “The Worst Person in the World” so…), Stellan Skarsgard may earn both his first Oscar nomination and an Emmy nod (for “Andor” season 2) within five months of each other and Trier may earn his second Original Screenplay nomination (after “Worst”) and a Directing nom to boot. And, we think after the “Worst” omission, and more recognizable faces to get members to watch it (Skarsgard, Elle Fanning), it is genuinely in the mix for a Best Picture nod. And, as Norway’s International Film submission, it is potentially a contender to take that category. The Nordic nation has a wealth of riches with the fantastic Berlin Golden Bear winner, Dag Johan Haugerud’s “Dreams (Sex Love),” likely to be snubbed because of “Sentimental’s” high-profile Cannes triumph.

Another NEON pickup is Kleber Mendonça Filho‘s “The Secret Agent,” which won Best Director and saw Wagner Mora take Best Actor. “Agent” is a dark horse Best Picture nominee, but more likely Brazil’s International Film category contender. The South American powerhouse rocked social media last season for the eventual winner in that category, “I’m Still Here,” and we’re not sure if we’re more afraid of how Brazilian fans will react online to any win or any perceived snub for “Agent” over the upcoming awards season. More importantly, Moura, an Academy member since 2021, has a legit shot of becoming the first Brazilian nominated for Best Actor. He’s got a ton of friends in the Actor’s branch after working so much in the U.S. over the past decade. And yes, you bet that matters.

The last NEON play is Oliver Laxe’s “Sirât,” another in-festival pickup that many thought could snag the Palme. Likely Spain’s international film submission, “Sirât’s” best shot in other categories is Original Score and Cinematography (maybe). It’s a longshot Best Picture nominee without taking the Palme, but will make a ton of critics’ top 10 lists.

Wait, have you done the math yet? Yes, NEON has four films in the International Film race (we’re assuming Julia Ducournau’s disappointing “Alpha” will not be France’s submission). And, they also picked up “Arco,” an animated film that will need a busy campaign along the lines of what Sideshow pulled off for “Flow” or Netflix achieved with “I Lost My Body,” to earn Animated Feature noms. But, oh wait, there’s more. In theory, NEON also has the TIFF People’s Choice Award winner “The Life of Chuck,” arriving in theaters in June, and Raoul Peck’s well-received documentary “Orwell: 2+2=5.” The former is a crowd pleaser that some believe has a shot for a Best Pic nom, and in Peck, the latter is a previously nominated filmmaker ready to return to the ring.

Even with agencies and awards consultants, this is a lot to campaign. It’s inherently difficult to give equal attention or resources to every contender with so many on your slate. We’re immediately reminded of A24 overburdening itself last year with “Babygirl,” “The Brutalist,” “Heretic,” “Queer,” “A Different Man,” and “Sing Sing.” A big win for Adrien Brody aside, and A24 spending where they could, we’re not sure any of those other contenders truly had an ideal campaign experience. Is NEON setting itself up for a similar scenario? We hope not, but color us concerned. I mean, even TWC wouldn’t go this overboard.

But other non-NEON players that made waves off the shores of la Croisette. Case in point, Lynne Ramsey’s “Die My Love.” The Montana-set melodrama earned very mixed reviews, but MUBI still shelled out $24 million for U.S., U.K., and Australia rights, among other territories. When you’ve priced out even Netflix and Apple, you’re potentially in a danger zone. “Love” might end up a long-term loss leader, but the distributor is hoping to capitalize on its success with “The Substance” and get Jennifer Lawrence another Oscar nomination. The movie essentially only has to play with the Acting branch for that to happen. Possible, especially if Lawrence is willing to campaign hard, but not a lock. And those predicting a win? Whoa, settle down, everyone. There are tons of contenders still on the docket.

Richard Linkletter’s “Nouvelle Vague (New Wave)” has become a strange case study so far. Despite a massive amount of goodwill on the ground from both French and American critics (maybe less so from U.K. ones), it still has not been picked up at publication. A love letter to the French New Wave and extremely entertaining, the movie feels like an easy play for a significant portion of The Academy. With the right distributor, we’d be shocked if it wasn’t in the mix for a Best Picture nomination as well as Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes, and Cinematography. Moreover, if it’s another weak Best Actor year, we could see newcomer Guillaume Marbeck in the mix as well. Watch this space to see if a major distributor smartly jumps into the fray.

Other International Film contenders likely (but never guaranteed) to be submitted by their respective nations include another MUBI pickup, “The Sound of Falling” (Germany), “Two Prosecutors” (Romania), “Young Mothers” (Belgium), Un Certain Regard winner “The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo” (Chile, unless politics force a pick for “The Wave”), “My Father’s Shadow” (Nigeria), “The Love That Remains” (Iceland), and Director’s Fortnight winner “The President’s Cake” (Iraq).

France’s submission may just end up being Hafsia Herzi’s “The Little Sister,” which saw another newcomer, Nadia Melliti, win Best Actress. Melliti is fantastic, but the movie’s coming-out story will be a bit too familiar for most AMPAS members. It did take the Queer Palm, however. It’s likely a shortlist player if submitted.

Paul Mescal and Josh O’Connor could be in the mix in the acting and supporting categories for “The History of Sound,” but the former, in particular, would need to do a lot of campaigning to make it happen. How inclined MUBI will be to invest in “Sound’s” campaign if Mescal isn’t (no answer on that at the moment), remains to be seen. MUBI may also be hoping the movie plays better across the Atlantic with AMPAS members than on la Croisette.

One last O’Connor note, the “Challengers” star arrived at Cannes with two new movies: “Sound” and Kelly Reichardt’s “The Mastermind.” MUBI has both in its coffers, but we still think O’Connor’s best shot at his first Oscar nomination is his leading role in Max Walker-Silverman’s “Rebuilding,” which Bleecker Street picked up a month or so after Sundance.

O.K., everyone, now exhale. Cannes only fueled more questions for the 2026 Oscar season, and it’s going to get more competitive in the weeks and months ahead. Oh, and we’re just seven weeks away from the Venice Film Festival and TIFF announcements. Enjoy the solace while you can.

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