This Oscar season, love is in the air, and so are submission deadlines.

The decision of whether, or how, a movie or performer should campaign for awards consideration is akin to whether a politician should run for president. The stakes are high, the costs are significant, and the ripple effects are long-lasting. Just as a potential candidate must weigh experience, polling data and public appetite before announcing a White House run, studios and strategists face equally consequential questions: where to submit films, how to position talent and when to risk resources on an uncertain path. The ultimate goal is to snag a seat inside the Dolby Theatre as an Oscar nominee — and, ideally, a winner.

What could emerge from this year’s campaign strategies could reveal a fundamental shift in how Hollywood approaches awards season.

For small independent films, the calculus is a gamble. Submissions to the Academy Screening Room, a crucial platform for voters to see the movies, cost between $8,000 and $20,000. The SAG Awards charge $200 for individual categories and $2,000 for ensemble casts. These are not symbolic investments; rather they represent months of careful budgeting, strategic planning and sometimes hard choices between survival and visibility.

As an example, look at the film “A Little Prayer,” written and directed by Angus MacLachlan, starring David Strathairn, Jane Levy and Celia Weston. Following its 2023 Sundance premiere, the indie drama only resurfaced after Hollywood’s dual strikes, which delayed its acquisition by Sony Pictures Classics. The rights reverted to MacLachlan, who found a home with Music Box Films. Now, MacLachlan, who lives in North Carolina, is pounding the pavement with a grassroots campaign to garner industry attention. Music Box Films will submit the film for consideration at the Independent Spirit and Gotham Awards, which recognize independent projects. In addition, the film will be on the ballot for the Writers Guild Awards (MacLachlan is a member) and the SAG Awards, where Strathairn will be considered for lead, while Jane Levy and Weston will vie for supporting actress. As of Sept. 19, the film is now on the Academy Screening Room for members to watch and consider.

The strategic maneuvering becomes most evident in the comedy versus drama debate surrounding several high-profile titles for this season’s Golden Globes, with the submission deadline looming on Oct. 31.

A critical early barometer, studios must decide whether to submit in comedy or drama categories — a choice that can be as defining as declaring a political party affiliation. Do you want to be taken more seriously and submit as “drama” or do you want to play up the lighter moments of your movie and vie for “comedy”?

Warner Bros. faces a pivotal decision with Zach Cregger’s “Weapons,” the summer box office breakout that grossed $264 million globally. Industry sources say the studio is weighing whether to position the film in the Globes’ comedy/musical categories, where competition may be lighter, or in the drama categories that traditionally carry more Oscar weight. The film’s lead actors, Josh Brolin and Julia Garner, both appear headed for lead acting consideration, but it’s Amy Madigan (eyeing a supporting actress run) that many believe could land a nomination, 30 years after her sole Oscar bid for “Twice in a Lifetime” (1985). Notably, the supporting acting categories at the Globes do not separate between comedy and drama, so the designation would neither help nor hurt her chances.

Similarly, WB must contemplate comedy/musical placement for Paul Thomas Anderson’s epic “One Battle After Another,” opening Friday. The studio faces a more complex challenge with its female ensemble. Chase Infiniti’s breakout performance has generated significant word-of-mouth but positioning her in lead leaves more room for co-stars Teyana Taylor and Regina Hall in supporting roles, and less of a chance of a classic vote-splitting dilemma that has derailed campaigns in the past. No final decisions have been made.

The international feature landscape presents another complication with multiple non-English language titles competing, particularly for distributor Neon. The reigning best picture-winning studio is sitting on a slate of foreign-language titles that could compete across categories. The list includes the Palme d’Or winner “It Was Just an Accident” (all actors will submit in supporting categories), the Brazilian drama “The Secret Agent,” the Spanish-language “Sirāt,” the TIFF international people’s choice winner “No Other Choice,” and its runner-up “Sentimental Value” — all strong contenders for international feature.

Notably, Variety has confirmed Neon will also take the unconventional step of submitting Park Chan-wook’s “No Other Choice” in the comedy categories, in addition to seeking international feature recognition. That move could open new avenues for lead actor Lee Byung-hun, a TIFF honoree. Coming one year after the musical “Emilia Pérez” became the first non-English language film to win in the comedy/musical category, the strategy could continue the trend.

Streaming giant Netflix faces its own set of decisions with several high-profile titles requiring careful positioning. Although not yet to be confirmed, Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly” appears destined for a comedy/musical run, which could make way for George Clooney in the lead actor race. More intriguing is the potential double-header approach for Rian Johnson’s “Wake Up Dead Man,” where Netflix could position both Josh O’Connor and Daniel Craig in lead actor comedy (the former could be a dark horse bid in supporting actor). The move would represent a significant vote of confidence in a category where Netflix has previously succeeded with nominees like Glen Powell (“Hit Man”) and winners like Andrew Garfield (“Tick, Tick… Boom!”).

The Golden Globes’ relatively new cinematic and box office achievement category — which purports to reward films with commercial success and cinematic merit — continues to draw attention and speculation, with its first two winners “Barbie” (2023) and “Wicked” (2024). To qualify, films must gross at least $150 million worldwide with $100 million domestic or achieve “commensurate digital streaming viewership recognized by trusted industry sources.”

This year’s field offers interesting selections. With Warner Bros.’ “A Minecraft Movie” at $423.9 million worldwide, Disney’s “Lilo & Stitch” remake at $423.7 million and DC Studios’ “Superman” at $354.1 million domestic, there’s plenty of popular titles to get people to tune in. Still to come are potential juggernauts such as “Wicked: For Good,” which could defend its crown, and James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” which could enter contention if voters see it in time. With the submission deadline set for Oct. 31, 2025, studios have weeks to finalize positioning strategies. Nomination ballots must reach voters by Nov. 25, with screening materials uploaded by Dec. 3.

But let’s be real. Acting categories are where the questions lie, and the ones surrounding the “love stories” are pointing to some interesting trends.

The genre stretches far beyond the familiar “boy meets girl, boy loses girl, boy gets girl back” formula that has dominated cinema for more than a century. Several contenders this year lean into romance as a strategic marketing and campaign hook. Yet, in Oscar history, there are few cases where male-and-female-centered love stories saw one actor positioned in lead and the other in supporting. For this analysis, the focus is strictly on films anchored by a central male-female romance, excluding titles shaped around “love triangles.” From a campaign strategy perspective, it’s easier to justify the category splits of Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal in “Brokeback Mountain” (2005) or Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara in “Carol” (2015), even as detractors labeled those choices “category fraud.”

Chloe Zhao’s “Hamnet,” which follows Agnes and William Shakespeare as they grieve the death of their son, is marketed an “untold love story,” as seen in the trailer (Paul Mescal’s campaign in lead or supporting is still undecided). Benny Safdie’s “The Smashing Machine,” with Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt, explores intimacy amid addiction. Bradley Cooper’s “Is This Thing On?” looks at divorce through Will Arnett and Laura Dern’s characters, while Derek Cianfrance’s “Roofman” has Channing Tatum finding connection with Kirsten Dunst while committing a crime spree.

Beyond genre, category placement decisions remain thorny, particularly when two romantic leads must decide whether to split the lead and supporting roles. History shows the choices can shape races, and even seasons.

Focus Features’ “Song Sung Blue,” directed by Craig Brewer, is likely to present such a case with Kate Hudson‘s performance. Industry buzz suggests she could be a significant awards season factor, 25 years after her sole Oscar nom for “Almost Famous” (2000). The category in which she ultimately lands could tilt the lead or supporting race. Similar strategic choices in recent years — Michelle Williams in “The Fabelmans” (2022) and Lily Gladstone in “Killers of the Flower Moon” (2023) — resulted in noms but not wins for the acclaimed performances. Not every strategic position translates to victory, but it can fundamentally alter how performances are perceived and remembered.

Oscar history offers a few examples of how category decisions have affected previous seasons. Depending on how you categorize the respective films, Alicia Vikander went supporting in “The Danish Girl” (2015) while co-star Eddie Redmayne ran lead; Jim Broadbent won supporting for “Iris” (2001) opposite Judi Dench in lead with only eight minutes of screen time difference between them. By contrast, Reese Witherspoon ran lead for “Walk the Line” (2005) and won. According to Matthew Stewart of Screen Time Central, Witherspoon has 46 minutes on screen compared to her co-star Joaquin Phoenix’s 99 minutes, in the 136-minute biopic of Johnny and June Cash.

Other love stories have blurred the lines, especially when it comes to how it’s initially marketed, versus how viewers ultimately view the film. Jennifer Connelly in “A Beautiful Mind” (2001) and Bérénice Bejo in “The Artist” (2011) both campaigned and were nominated in supporting actress, though their films were ultimately framed as a biopic and a classic Hollywood tale about their leading men Russell Crowe and Jean Dujardin. These decisions often came down to screen time mathematics.

By historical standards and current industry tealeaves, signs point to Hudson going for the lead statuette for “Song Sung Blue,” alongside her co-star Hugh Jackman. However, could a dual-category strategy be in the ether? Much like Catherine Zeta-Jones in “Chicago” (2002) or Maria Bakalova in “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (2020) — that could offer flexibility across voting bodies where Hudson competes lead at Globes, and goes supporting elsewhere. That approach didn’t affect Zeta-Jones, who ended up taking home the Oscar.

Speaking of “Chicago,” its director Bill Condon is in the mix with another musical: a remake of “Kiss of the Spider Woman.” As Variety exclusively revealed, its love interests are dividing and conquering in the awards race — Tonatiuh is going for lead and Diego Luna is in supporting, which differs from the 1985 version where Raul Julia and William Hurt (who won) both campaigned in lead.

As awards season progresses, the success or failure of these strategic gambles will likely influence how future romantic dramas approach their campaigns, potentially reshaping decades of precedent in favor of more aggressive positioning strategies.

The first Golden Globes predictions are below. The Oscar prediction pages will be updated Thursday and Friday.

Golden Globes Predictions Tracking
(Sept. 25, 2025)

Best Picture (Drama)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)

Best Picture (Comedy or Musical)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“No Other Choice” (Neon)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Actor (Drama)
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Anemone” (Focus Features)
Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon) ***
Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)

Actor (Comedy or Musical)
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24) ***
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Hugh Jackman, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Tonatiuh, “Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)

Actress (Drama)
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Jennifer Lawrence, “Die, My Love” (Mubi)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Julia Roberts, “After the Hunt” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Sydney Sweeney, “Christy” (Black Bear Pictures)

Actress (Comedy or Musical)
Laura Dern, “Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures)
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Jodie Foster, “A Private Life” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Dakota Johnson, “Materialists” (A24)
Emma Stone, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)

Supporting Actor
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***
Jeremy Strong, “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)

Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features) ***
Gwyneth Paltrow, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
“Kpop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Lilo and Stitch” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“A Minecraft Movie” (Warner Bros.)
“Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” (Paramount Pictures)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Superman” (DC Studios)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)

Directing
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Park Chan-wook, “No Other Choice” (Neon)
Jon M. Chu, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)

Screenplay
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) — Noah Oppenheim
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) — Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler

Original Score
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Jerskin Fendrix
“Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Hildur Guðnadóttir
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) — Volker Bertlemann
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix) — Nicholas Britell
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***

Original Song
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — “Golden” by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick ***
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — “What It Sounds Like” by EJae
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — “I Lied to You” by Rod Wave
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — “Train Dreams” by Nick Cave
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — “The Girl in the Bubble” by Stephen Schwartz
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — “No Place Like Home” by Stephen Schwartz

Animated Feature
“Arco” (Neon)
“Elio” (Pixar)
“In Your Dreams” (Netflix)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)

Non-English Language
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon) — France
“No Other Choice” (Neon) — South Korea ***
“Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix) — France
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) — Brazil
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Norway
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” (U.S. Distributor TBD) — Tunisia

Podcast of the Year
“Call Her Daddy” — Alex Cooper
“The Daily” — Michael Barbaro, Rachel Abrams, and Natalie Kitroeff
“Good Hang with Amy Poehler” — Amy Poehler ***
“New Heights” — Jason Kelce and Travis Kelce
“The Joe Rogan Experience” — Joe Rogan
“This Past Week with Theo Von” — Theo Von

Variety parent company Penske Media Corporation owns Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Prods. in a joint venture with Eldridge.